HURRICANE KARL - 2004
HURRICANE KARL HEADS OUT TO SEA
Friday, September 18th, 2004 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10 ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL WHICH BECOMES ERODED BY 72 HOURS FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. KARL IS LOOKING GOOD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE AND BANDING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102/90/77 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS AFTER WHICH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE.
HERMINE IVAN JEANNE LISA MATTHEW NICOLE
PHOTOS: CHARLEY FRANCES IVAN JEANNE
2004 Hurricane Briefs