HURRICANE LISA - 2004
LISA REPORTS:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL HURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION 5 PM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004 AFTER NEALY TWO WEEKS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...LISA REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE 8TH HURRICANE OF THE 2004 SEASON. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND THE EYE FEATURE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. CONSEQUENTLY... SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AS WELL AS OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. IN ADDITION... LATEST AVAILABLE SSMI SHOW A RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE AND AMSU ESTIMATES ARE 64 KNOTS AND 987 MB PRESSURE. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...LISA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE. HOWEVER...LISA IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON. LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 19 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. THEREFORE ...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. LISA IS EXPECTED TO TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER. TROPICAL STORM LISA OCT 02 2004 THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE EAST AND MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED. ALSO WHAT CONVECTION THERE IS LEFT HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY. A 21Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS MAX WINDS NEAR 50 KT AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT OR LESS. SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 50 KT. THE CENTER IS OVER THE 20 DEG SST ISOTHERM OR LESS AND THE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS A WHOPPING 40 KT. SO LISA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/23. LISA IS BEING SWEPT ALONG IN THE WESTERLIES AND WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
HERMINE IVAN JEANNE KARL MATTHEW NICOLE
PHOTOS: CHARLEY FRANCES IVAN JEANNE
2004 Hurricane Briefs