TROPICAL STORM NICOLE - 2004

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE REPORT:

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED
AND IS BEING IDENTIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM.  THIS IS BASED ON
THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER AS SHOWN ON A
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT AND ALSO ON THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL COLD LOW OVER THE SURFACE SYSTEM.  MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT
40 KNOTS BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS AND A RECENT SHIP REPORT.  THE
DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CENTER AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...NICOLE COULD TRANSITION INTO A
TROPICAL SYSTEM.  THE FORECAST IS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR A
DAY OR TWO UNTIL THE STORM MERGES WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/13,  THE FORECAST TRACK IS MOSTLY
NORTHWARD FOR 72 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES FROM
NORTH AMERICA TO THE ATLANTIC AND CUTS OFF.  THE GFS SHOWS NICOLE
MERGING WITH THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN 48 HOURS AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NICOLE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AT
48 HOURS.  A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS
FOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL.

ALEX  BONNIE  CHARLEY  DANIELLE  EARL  FRANCES  GASTON
HERMINE  IVAN  JEANNE  KARL  LISA  MATTHEW
PHOTOS: CHARLEY  FRANCES  IVAN  JEANNE
2004 Hurricane Briefs